Geopolitical Signal
Trump announces Russia and Ukraine agreed to a 3-day ceasefire and prisoner swap
US and Iran trade fire in Strait of Hormuz, ceasefire declared but UAE also targeted; oil tanker traffic resumes slowly
US forces disabled an Iran-flagged tanker attempting to break the Hormuz blockade
Trump pauses U.S. convoy escorts in Hormuz, citing Iran deal progress
Iran struck the UAE port of Fujairah and fired on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, driving oil above $105
Iran rejects Trump's Hormuz navigation proposal while OPEC+ proceeds with output hikes
Iran warns war likely to restart as Trump reviews ceasefire proposal
Iran's 14-point ceasefire proposal reaches Trump's desk as the Strait of Hormuz remains contested and a congressional war-powers deadline nears
WTI crude above $105, Brent hitting $126 as the US-Iran conflict shows no resolution
UAE exits OPEC+ after 59 years, stripping the cartel of roughly 15% of its production capacity
UAE quits OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1
Brent crude tops $111 as the Hormuz blockade enters its third week, with Goldman Sachs reporting global oil inventories drawing at record pace
Iran offers US a deal to reopen Hormuz but delay nuclear talks
Mali's defense minister killed as JNIM launches coordinated attacks on Bamako and multiple cities
Strait of Hormuz blockade enters week eight with no clear reopening timeline
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