Geopolitical Signal #136
Iran drafts plan to ban US and Israeli ships from Hormuz
Signals
Iran drafts plan to ban US and Israeli ships from Hormuz
energy procurement teams must reprice routing assumptions and model a sustained closure scenario now.
Web
Saudi Arabia expects imminent attacks from north and south
Gulf logistics hubs face disruption; audit contingency routing for regional supply chains.
Reuters
Europe splits with US over Hormuz naval coalition
shipping insurers lack a clear force-protection guarantee to price against.
Web
Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan to sign joint defence pact Friday
watch treaty text for basing rights and mutual-aid clauses reshaping Gulf-to-South-Asia security.
Reuters
China to raise output at world's largest rare earth deposit by half
update rare earth cost and sourcing models; supply-constraint assumptions no longer hold.
Web
US pays German firm $1.22bn to cancel offshore wind leases
developers must audit US lease exposure before committing further capital.
Web
North Korean missile unit deploys in Russia for Ukraine war
sanctions compliance teams should flag dual-use procurement chains tied to DPRK-Russia supply lines.
Web
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The Hormuz draft ban, Saudi attack warnings, and the Turkey-Saudi-Pakistan pact are converging on the same energy corridor at the same time. Any cost model assuming open Gulf transit and stable energy inputs is one 72-hour news cycle from being wrong.
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