Geopolitical Signal #15
Iran-US direct talks opened in Oman as Trump claimed the Strait of Hormuz would be "open fairly soon"
Signals
Iran-US direct talks opened in Oman as Trump claimed the Strait of Hormuz would be "open fairly soon"
but Iran told mediators it will cap transit at roughly 12 ships per day during any ceasefire (normal flow is around 130), plus tolls, meaning the chokepoint remains functionally closed even under a deal.
Reuters
Hungary's election is now genuinely competitive
Orbán made a last-ditch unity appeal, and credible analysis suggests he could lose. A post-Orbán Hungary would shift EU cohesion votes on Ukraine funding and sanctions.
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The Hormuz ceasefire, if it holds, will not restore normal oil flows — Iran's proposed cap keeps the chokepoint as a lever, not a resolved dispute, and inflation data confirms the damage is already embedded in Western consumer prices. Every signal this week — Gulf-Ukraine oil-for-weapons deals, European fuel shortages, France decoupling from US software — points to allies quietly restructuring supply chains and alliances around the assumption that US reliability is no longer a given.
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